By Gabriel Andre – Art in Tanzania internship

Environmental Advocacy Program

Climate Change

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA

1. What can be expected

Tanzania is a coastal country in East Africa which shares the Victoria Lake border with Kenya and Uganda. Given that the vast majority of the population’s livelihoods depend on the agriculture sector (80 % of the population), which is highly sensitive to climate change, Tanzania is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. Climate change impacts are already taking a significant toll on the livelihoods and wellbeing of Tanzanians, including:

The rising of severe droughts frequency and its associated water scarcity issues, slow down in the food production chain, economics and poverty reduction gains, reduced quantity and quality of the water in Victoria Lake, including an increase in contaminants which impact the purity of the water and have the potential to harm health,  reduced surface water flows and aquifer (see diagrams below) that recharge during drought periods, as well as groundwater depletion through aquifer over-extraction.  

Furthermore, we can anticipate the intrusion of saline into aquifers (diagram) in low-lying coastal areas and, on a more global scale, impacts from coastal flooding.  Climate projections for Tanzania include increased periods of prolonged drought, more erratic rainfall patterns (leading to extreme flooding) and rising sea levels, all of which may exacerbate the mentioned pressures on water resources in this already water-stressed country. If Tanzania’s low capacity for climate resilience is not addressed, this will likely profoundly impact public health, stifling future development in urban and rural settings alike.

2. Projections from today to 2100

In this section, I will illustrate what transformation we can expect in different sectors in Tanzania, such as energy, agriculture, water, and health. 

Before going into technical information, it’s essential to understand how those sectors will be impacted. In most of the diagrams, there will be two baselines: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5

The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration.

(Not emission) trajectory adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They described different climate futures depending on the volume of GHGs emitted in the years to come. Founded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), the IPCC’s role is to provide objective scientific information to understand the risk of human-induced climate change and draft recommendations to act. 

IPCC has foreseen many scenarios such as RCP 1.9, RCP 2.6, RCP 3.4, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 7 and RCP 8.5. In the following analysis of Tanzania’s climate change future, we will focus only on RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. 

RCP 2.6 requires that CO2 will start decreasing by 2020 and go to zero by 2100. Methane emissions (CH4) are going half the CH4 level of 2020, and sulphur dioxide declined to approximately 10% of those in 1980-1990. In simple words, we will be able to respect the Paris Agreement and likely to keep global temperature warming rising under 2*C by 2100. We will have to face new environmental conditions that are still close to the actual ones, but our daily lives will remain comfortable.

RCP 8.5, as you can imagine, is another story. It’s the worst climate change scenario with a very high baseline emissions scenario. Experts see it as the “business as usual” scenario.

RCP 8.5 scenario assumes that by 2100, there will be between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion people. Assuming that fertility collapse will occur in the world without considering Africa. For example, Nigeria’s population will rise from 175 million nowadays to 1.5 billion by 2100. Almost all the fossil energies will be consumed, and we can expect that southern Europe will be the new Sahara. Most of the people on the planet will be living in extreme conditions. A scenario where giving birth in 2100 would be condemning your children to a hopeless life.  

Let’s then focus on the impact of those scenarios on Tanzania through those sectors. Most of the following diagrams in this section are taken from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank Group. https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/tanzania-unitedrepublic/climate-data-projections

Þ Agriculture and Energy sector 

Precipitation: extreme events  

As warmer air has a higher capacity to carry moisture in the form of water vapour, future climate raises the likelihood of strong rainfall events towards the extremes. In many

places around the world, the maximum expected amount of rainfall in 10 years is projected to increase, which can lead to flooding. 

Nowadays, Tanzania is subjected to this seasonal temperature and climate variation. The rainfall period starts in December and ends at the beginning of April. Then, the easter season arrives with comfortable temperatures, consequently causing the arrival of millions of tourists. 

What would be the projection of this monthly precipitation in RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios?

RCP 2.6

Compared to historical data, between 2080 and 2099, Tanzania will face a variation of around 75mm maximum (January and November) in its precipitation, reinforcing floods in coastal regions and the Victoria Lake region. In other terms, the rainfall season will be more intense each year, but Tanzania will have time to adapt to those new conditions. Innovations will engender better management in the agricultural and energy sectors. On the left are monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right are monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099. In the case of the RCP 2.6 scenario, the difference in 50-80 years is not considerable. 

RCP 8.5

In the case of RCP 8.5, monthly precipitation will drastically increase, leading to a maximum precipitation level difference of around 150mm in January. On the leftare the monthly precipitation projections for 2020-2039. On the right are monthly precipitation projections for 2080-2099, in the RCP 8.5 scenario. 

In both cases, precipitation concentration will increase, intensifying future floods, yet not with the same intensity. Indeed, in the diagram above, the RCP 8.5 scenario demonstrates the impact of the “business as usual” attitude towards the Tanzanian climate. It is clear that if we were to find ourselves in the situation of the diagram on the right, business will not be as usual. Power production will be primarily affected. For example, the transportation lines for fuel could be interrupted by local floods for days or weeks, or the network distribution could be disturbed by excessive rainfall and flooding. Agriculture will be hit critically, with farm crops always swept by floods, which will drive Tanzania into deeper poverty. 

Drought: extreme events 

Both power demand and production are tied to water availability. This is most directly the case in hydropower systems. However, dry conditions might also accompany higher temperatures, thus heightening cooling needs and increasing demand for water pumping, particularly in regions of intense agriculture. 

On the production side, water is required to cool the power plants. If there is insufficient water, cooling is restricted, and production might need to be slowed. In some places, there are regulations preventing power plants from causing an increase in the temperature of returned water above specific thresholds, which are dangerous for local fish and plants. These thresholds are faster if stream flows are low during dry conditions. In a few regions, too much moisture can also be an issue, as water might need to be removed.

RCP 2.6

Concerning agriculture, drought can disrupt its demand and production because the exposition of soils to high temperatures and the scarcity of water can result in soil infertility. 

In the RCP 2.6 scenario, the temperature will rise to 2.5 degrees with extreme variation. Usually, it will stay around the 1-degree rising prediction. The temperature will still promote comfortable living. Both energy and agricultural sectors will remain possible thanks to technical innovation. 

RCP 8.5

In the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperature will rise from 3 degrees to maximum 6 degrees! It will drastically change Tanzanian’s habits in terms of energy supply. Disruption of operation and distribution will become a significant problem because of the rising demand of the growing population and evolving power needs. In the same case, demand for agriculture will rise, but production will decrease because of soil infertility. With 80% of the population living on agriculture, feeding Tanzania’s population will be a considerable challenge. Moreover, the breeding of goats and cows will face a lack of grasslands and associated difficulties sustaining livestock. 

To sum up, in the case of the RCP 2.6 scenario, environmental conditions will increase progressively, leaving time to find innovations and new management methods to keep demand and production at a sustainable level. That also means that Tanzanian society must take a responsible pathway for its environment by focusing on green energies and avoiding fossil energies.  

In the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, environmental conditions will increase drastically without leaving time for farmers and energy companies to adapt their methods. Those changes will submerge both sectors. Agriculture will face long drought periods, making soils incapable of growing crops, and then will follow long-term rainfall, causing incessant floods. Here also, the farmers will not have the time for transition and crops will be drowned and washed away. Electricity will face high demand for cooling, hence conditions for living workers in both extreme periods will be inhumane. Finally, supply, production and distribution in flood periods will be complex because of poor road conditions. 

Þ Water sector: Lake Victoria case

Africa’s Victoria Lake is the largest tropical lake and source of the Nile River. Climate changes will affect Lake Victoria’s evaporation, temperature, rainfall, and solar energy. According to Emily Beverly, assistant professor of sedimentary geology at Baylor University, Lake Victoria “could have no outlet to the White Nile in at least ten years”. This means that every significant port will be landlocked, and Kenya could lose access to the lake for a maximum of 400 years. More than 40 million people are living in the Lake Victoria basin, and this result will badly affect their economy. Tanzania depends on the lake’s freshwater because it provides 1 million tons of fish annually. Tanzania’s fishing industry will decrease significantly, and this shortage will directly affect all northern regions. 

Even with increased precipitation in Tanzania (monthly precipitation diagram 2080-2099), in the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperatures will be so high that the lake will dry out too quickly for it to fill up. 

The diagram shows the drought impact in Victoria Lake, where more than half of the Tanzanian lake area will be affected. 

Moreover, the demand for drinkable water will also rise with the temperature rise.

Global warming will cause the ice on Kilimanjaro and Mount Meru to melt irreversibly.

Neither of these sources will be able to provide drinking water to the districts around.

Mount Meru (Arumeru, Arusha, Karatu, Monduli, Ngorongoro) and those around Kilimanjaro (Hai, Moshi rural, Moshi urban, Mwanga, Rombo, Same) who are entirely dependent on them, representing more than 3 million people. 

Finally, rising sea levels will constrain most of Zanzibar’s population to immigrate to the mainland. 

Þ Health sector 

Most economic sectors will be affected by climate change (agriculture, energy, fishing, etc.) and the impact on those sectors will result in many adverse effects on the human health of the Tanzanian population. With 80% of the population living in local agriculture, most of them won’t be able to feed themselves, and starvation will become familiar through the years.  Because of this malnutrition, many will be inclined to face communicable or non-communicable diseases. According to the World Bank data, 54% of causes of death in Tanzania were caused by infectious diseases and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions. 

Malaria is still also a significant issue in Tanzania. In 2018, the incidence of Malaria was 124 per 1000, which represents 7.4 million people at risk. The rise of tropical temperatures and floods will increase the mosquito population and, therefore, the risks of obtaining yellow fever, malaria, Zika virus, chikungunya and many others. 

Finally, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, poverty will increase consequently, and the population won’t be able to face massive floods. With 49% of the population living under 1.90$ per day, with houses on the ground and only a sheet of metal as a roof, we can easily imagine the catastrophe. 

In conclusion, if Tanzania takes the pathway of green energy, which means avoiding coal and oil, the two primary used fossil energies, and if the government implements a massive environmental sensibilization campaign, Tanzania could likely face the RCP 2.6 scenario. As always, the biggest drivers of gas emissions are the public and private sectors; some have to give an example. Otherwise, the country will face, in the worst case, the RCP 8.5 scenario. As seen before, these scenarios will be a disaster for a developing country, such as Tanzania, which faces extreme events and unbearable conditions.