ARTICLE ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA

By Japhet Mgona – Art in Tanzania internship

Climate Change

Environmental Advocacy Program

Introduction to Climate Change

For centuries, climate change has been a matter of grave concern globally. It is also one of the substantial global challenges in the 21st century. Many scientists and local people, through contemporary and indigenous practices, respectively, hold diverse views on the meaning, source, and impacts of climate change. In terms of meaning, it is scientifically agreed that climate change is a long-term process in which the components of the climate system vary over many years.

Climate change is further defined by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) as a statistically significant variation that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It includes shifts in the frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather events, as well as a slow continuous rise in global mean surface temperature.

Historical Background of Climate Change;

Climate change began in the early 19th century when the ice age and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected, and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first suggested that human emissions of the greenhouse effect could alter the climate. Additionally, numerous other theories of climate change were proposed, involving forces such as volcanism and solar variation. In 1960, the warming effect of carbon dioxide increased. Some scientists have also noted that human activities that generate atmospheric aerosols, such as pollution, may have a cooling effect. During the 1970s, scientific opinions increasingly favoured the warming effect. By the 1990s, due to improved observational work and confirmation of the Milankovitch theory’s consensus position on ice ages, greenhouse gases were found to be deeply involved in most climate change, and human-caused emissions were contributing to global warming.  

Moreover, some scientists have urged the urgency of climate change, starting with Joseph Fourier (1768-1830), who first discussed the greenhouse effect. He knew that the atmosphere protects us from the sun, and he suggested that the atmosphere’s composition would change and could lead to the earth’s warming. A few decades later, in 1861, another scientist known as John Tyndall(1820-1893), identified the gases that may cause such effects when he investigated the absorption of infrared radiation in the different gases; he found that water vapour and hydrocarbons like methane and carbon dioxide, strongly block the radiation and lead to cause the warming in the earth. Other scientists, such as James and Peter Kropotkin, suggested that ice ages and other climate changes were due to changes in the amount of gases emitted during volcanic activity. Still, they were only one of the possible causes. Another possibility was solar variation and shifts in ocean currents, which they identified as potential causes.  (Croll, 1875)

According to the report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), gathered in Copenhagen in December 2009 to try to reach an agreement on global action to combat climate change, the 2012 successor to the Kyoto Protocol will be held in Africa. Based on what is Africa’s interest in this worldwide effort to meet key climate change objectives? How will Africa perform in Copenhagen? Given its passive role in Kyoto, will Africa make a difference to the outcomes of the negotiations and the Copenhagen Agreement?

 Most analyses of the impacts of climate change that have influenced UNFCCC agreements focus on medium- to long-term projections of carbon emissions and forecasting models of global warming, covering mainly countries and regions for which relevant data are readily available. Due to the unavailability of data and trajectories, this analysis leaves out most developing countries and regions, particularly those in Africa. From an African perspective, this is a serious and costly issue. As the poorest continent, Africa is considered the most susceptible to climate change due to its vulnerability and inability to cope with the physical, human, and socioeconomic consequences of climate extremes.

 Moreover, existing adaptation mechanisms and resources under the Kyoto Agreement, designed to mitigate the effects of climate change on Africa and other developing regions, have been directed at limiting future carbon emissions rather than addressing the region’s vulnerability and lack of resilience to the impacts of climate change on its economies and populations. As of late as April 2007, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that Africa was not acting quickly enough to stem the direct economic and environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC, 2007). This report appears to have overlooked or missed the fact that Africa’s primary concern about climate change is not primarily in terms of projections of carbon emissions and future environmental damage. It is more about the links between climate change and droughts, desertification, floods, coastal storms, soil erosion, and contemporary disaster events that threaten lives and livelihoods, hindering the continent’s economic growth and social progress.  (Solomon & Qln, 2007)

Causes of Climate Change

There have been diverse views about the origin of climate change. The debate on the origin covers two significant aspects.

First, it tells us that climate change has existed for millions, thousands, hundreds, and tens of years (decades). The proponents of this notion mention the disappearance of flora and fauna species, such as the dinosaurs, which were extinct not because of humans but rather due to variations in temperature and rainfall. They further connect their views with the mass extinctions that occurred millions of years ago. Previous studies have presented the first dimension, which asserts that climate change is due to natural forces. They associate the Earth’s orbital variations, such as the Sun rising and setting, volcanism, etc., as natural events that cause unusual weather patterns beyond human control. Furthermore, their arguments maintain that natural forces, such as landmass drifting, plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanism, fueled climate change. 

The second perspective suggests that climate change began in the early 19th century, when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. This notion went so far as to link human activities to the cause of climate change, as they rightly observed the industrial revolutions that notably began in the 19th century, accompanied by immense greenhouse gas emissions.  They associate human activities, such as industrial activities, agricultural activities, mining, and transportation, with causing emissions of gases, which in turn lead to droughts, floods, and other environmental issues. Not only that, but also God’s punishment due to unrepentant human sins and disobeying our ancestors’ cultural setups is believed to be the cause of climate change by some believers.

In Tanzania, various human activities contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases, hence influencing climate change. Activities such as industrial activities, agricultural activities, deforestation, mining activities, and fuel burning are among the human causes of climate change.

Trigger’s force of climate change and its impacts

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA

Over the centuries and decades, climate change has been perceived as a double sword in terms of its impacts on economic, living, and non-living sectors.

Climate change projection indicates that the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events will increase. Over the last 40 years, Tanzania has experienced severe and recurring droughts that have devastated the agricultural, water, and energy sectors. Currently, more than 70% of all natural disasters in Tanzania are hydro-meteorological, linked to droughts and floods. Climate change Impacts various sectors in Tanzania as follows.

Agriculture and Food Security

Changing climate has resulted in a general decline in agricultural productivity, including changes in Agro-diversity. The prevalence of crop pests and diseases is also reported to have increased, posing more challenges to agriculture. Furthermore, the changes in weather patterns that have disrupted agricultural production have impacted food security.

Adverse impact of climate change in agriculture activities

Fresh Water Resources

Increasing rainfall variability and prolonged droughts cause severe pressure on the country’s available water resources. Severe and recurrent droughts in recent years have triggered a decrease in water flows in rivers, resulting in the shrinkage of receiving lakes and declines in water levels in satellite lakes and hydropower dams. Furthermore, some perennial rivers have become seasonal, and some wetlands have dried up.

Human Health

Variability in precipitation may have direct consequences in infectious disease outbreaks. Increased precipitation may increase the presence of disease vectors by expanding the size of the existing larval habitat and creating new breeding grounds. In addition, increased precipitation may support growth in food supplies, which in turn support a greater population of vertebrate reservoirs. Alternatively, flooding may force insect or rodent vectors into houses, increasing the likelihood of vector-human contact. IPCC, 2001 indicates that many vector, food and water-borne diseases are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions.

There is also a wider set of indirect impacts from climate change on health, which are linked to other sectors, such as food security and malnutrition through reduced agricultural productivity as a result of changes in soil quality, increased crop and livestock pests and diseases, prolonged drought and water scarcity. Reduced agricultural productivity associated with climate change/variability exposes communities to other health risk factors, such as HIV or AIDS.

larval habitat due to floods at Kinondoni

Coastal and Marine Environment

Central climate change-related impacts stem from increased sea surface temperatures and the associated rise in sea level. Some of the effects include the destruction of coral reefs, coastal erosion, slight island submergence, damage to coastal infrastructures and human settlements, intrusion of seawater into freshwater wells, and degradation of mangroves.

Energy

As a result of increasing climate variability, the country has experienced a rise in recurrent and prolonged droughts over the last few years, with severe implications for hydropower generation. Power rationing and blackouts have become a common phenomenon in Tanzania. This affects individuals’ household and industrial income-generating activities. Consequently, additional resources committed to other development programs are sometimes being reallocated for thermal electricity generation.

Forestry

The standard impacts to all forest types include loss of biodiversity, disappearance of wildlife habitats, increased risk of bushfires, limited availability of forest products (timber and non-timber products) and ecosystem shift.

Biodiversity

Overall, a very high possibility of irreversible biodiversity loss is projected as a result of such climate changes, with many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species being placed at a significantly greater risk of extinction than before. Water shortages for large mammals, especially in years with low rainfall, are one of the main challenges facing wildlife. The places that naturally hold water during the dry season no longer retain water for long. For instance, water-dependent animals, especially hippopotamus, crocodiles, buffalos and elephants, are often found crowded in a few remaining water ponds, for example, in the Ruaha and Katuma River system.

Hippopotamus congregation in small water pools due to water shortage in Katavi River system in 2009

Tourism

Tourism has close connections to the environment and is considered a highly climate-sensitive sector. Climate variability affects the duration and quality of tourism seasons, thereby significantly influencing destination choice and tourist spending. The climate also has a substantial influence on environmental conditions that can deter tourists, including infectious diseases, wildfires, insects, or waterborne pests, and extreme events such as tropical cyclones. The sector is already being impacted by climate change. The manifestations of climate change are highly relevant to both tourism destinations and tourists. For instance, Mountain Kilimanjaro has lost 80% of its ice cover between 1912 and 2000

Apart from the impacts of rising sea levels, which have destroyed cultural, historical, archaeological, and heritage sites along the country’s coastal areas, heat stress and drought have also caused massive wildlife deaths in the northern tourist zone. Destruction of infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, is devastating. Road maintenance becomes particularly difficult and expensive during prolonged heavy rains in many parts of the country. For example, the 2006 El Niño rains left many park roads impassable for an extended period, resulting in a decline in tourist visits and a loss of revenue.

Decrease ice coverage at Mount Kilimanjaro as the effect of climate change

Furthermore, climate change impacts the livestock sector, industrial sector, fishing sector, infrastructure and transport sector, human settlement, land use and planning and education sector, which are essential for development, employment opportunities and the backbone of the economy.

CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES IN TANZANIA

In addressing climate change at the national and local levels, various initiatives and programs have been undertaken in Tanzania in the context of UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. Implementing the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is further supported by the environment enabling it, including the National Environment Policy (1997) and the EMA. Not only that, but the private sector and organisations have also played a significant role in addressing climate change in Tanzania. Furthermore, the country’s climate change adaptation strategy and climate change-related programs, including REDD and REDD+ projects, are among the initiatives for climate change mitigation, adaptation, and coping strategies.

MITIGATION, ADAPTATION AND COPING MEASURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN TANZANIA

It is evident that climate change is happening and will continue to ravage sectors and our livelihoods. Various studies have revealed that people from different areas have been mitigating, adapting and/or coping with it to make lives go on. Tanzania also helps communities mitigate, adapt to, and cope with climate change to a limited extent, mainly due to limited awareness of climate change. Typically, the following measures are taken and suggested for mitigating, adapting to, and coping with climate change.

Mitigation measures for climate change

Mitigation involves the efforts undertaken to reduce anthropogenic (greenhouse gas) emissions or to enhance natural sinks of greenhouse gases to mitigate the threats of climate change (to lower the risks). Mitigation measures suggested and taken in Tanzania are like:

  1. Afforestation
  2. Reforestation
  3. Intercropping/agroforestry
  4. Building water reservoirs, such as dams and ponds.
  5. Use of environmentally friendly energy sources, such as geothermal, natural gas, solar, and wind energy, rather than charcoal, coal, and fuelwood.
  6. The use of organic manure prevents nutrient and water loss.
  7. As the most significant carbon sink on the planet, soil sequesters greenhouse gases through proper soil conservation methods, such as contour planting and no-till farming, which do not disturb the soil.
  8. Farmers may prevent the submergence of rice fields by reducing methane and cultivating upland rice or other upland crops.
  9. Destocking
  10. Establishing greenhouse emission reduction projects like Carbon trading, carbon sequestrations, REDD, REDD+, and CDM.
  11. Planting tree crops


Adaptation to climate change

Adaptation to climate change involves the process of adjusting to actual or expected climate conditions and their effects to mitigate harm or capitalise on beneficial opportunities. In Tanzania, adaptation measures undertaken and suggested are like:

  • Farmers planting different crops for different seasons
  • Levees against sea level rise
  • Temporary and permanent migration
  • Destocking
  • Building water reservoirs
  • Re-use, recycle and Reduction of the use of resources like water
  • Rainwater harvesting and retention
  • Changing the planting seasons
  • Intercropping
  • Use fewer greenhouse gases as sources of energy
  • Livelihood/occupational diversifications
  • Growing early matured crops
  • Rearing drought-resistant livestock.
  • Formulation of social climate resilient groups venturing into rural savings, table banking schemes, getting funding from innovations funds and micro-financing institutions.
  • Conservation agriculture (mainly reduced tillage soil cover).
  • Crop rotations
  • Establishment of community-based climate change adaptation Organizations
  • Establishing climate early warning systems
  • Farming intensification and extensification
  • Mulching to conserve moisture during droughts.
  • Kitchen gardens
  • Pumping irrigations
  • Chemical weed control
  • Switching to off-farm activities

COPING STRATEGIES/MEASURES

However, once we explore the adaptation measures, it becomes clear that some measures require a long time to adapt, while others take a short time. In this context, those measures that take a short time are called coping mechanisms, as they may not demand adjustments to ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. Therefore, the coping strategies practised in Tanzania and those suggested are like:

  • Receiving remittances from children/ relatives living in urban
  • Borrowing cash to buy food
  • Reduce the number of meals per day
  • Renting land for cash
  • Food borrowing

LIMITATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, ADAPTATION, AND COPING STRATEGIES IN TANZANIA

  • Population growth
  • Lack of mitigation and adaptation technologies
  • Little awareness and research on climate change
  • Lack of information on climate change impacts
  • Limited resources
  • Lack of access to early warnings and unreliable seasonal forecasts.
  • High cost of adaptation
  • Inadequate farm inputs
  • Weak institutional coordination and support
  • Low institutional capacity
  • Poor extension services
  • Poor enforcement and implementation of laws and by-laws
  • Too much bureaucracy
  •  Insurance coverage
  • Conflicts between farmers and pastoralists
  • Satisfied that climate change is the will of God
  • Reluctant to take chances
  • Believing superstitions

Generally, most of the disasters in Tanzania are related to climate change impacts; therefore, mitigating, adapting and coping with climate change links with disaster risk reduction and management activities. And regarding various climate change related impacts Climate change is indeed real and evident, it is inevitable, and it has to be appropriately and sustainably addressed.

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